Model Signal classifies the absolute difference between our fair line and the current market. A larger signal means the model and market are farther apart; it does not automatically mean the bet is more historically reliable. Signal Confidence is a separate evidence grade earned prospectively from sample size, ATS performance, closing-line value and beat-close rate.

How the projected total works: the total begins with the model's national scoring baseline, then adjusts for both teams' offensive and defensive EPA per play and success rates. The model constrains extreme outputs, rounds to the nearest half-point and then applies any qualifying Weather Engine scoring adjustment. The displayed Over/Under direction is the difference between that adjusted projection and the available market total.

Totals testing key: a 4.0–6.9 point difference is a Total Lean; 7.0+ is a Total Watch. No totals flag appears when a market total is unavailable. Total flags are tracked separately, do not affect spread signals or board order, and do not receive a confidence grade until prospective results establish a reliable threshold.